Real estate economists say that there is a 52 percent chance that the next recession will start by the end of 2019, according to Zillow. If it doesn’t happen then, economists say that there’s a 73 percent chance the next recession will begin by the end of 2020.
Respondents to the Q3 2017 Zillow Home Price Expectations Survey said that a geopolitical crisis will be the most likely cause of the next downturn. Other possible triggers include monetary policy or a stock market correction.
Respondents said that a recession will only have a modern impact on housing, with San Francisco and Miami among the most-affected markets.
The average expected annual growth rate for the five years January 2017 through December 2021 is 3.4 percent, with optimists predicting 5.2 percent average annual growth during those five years and pessimists predicting 1.3 percent.
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