How Might the Next Recession Affect the Housing Market?

The next recession is on a lot of Americans' minds as they worry about their investments. But according to economists, the next one won’t be nearly as bad as 2008, and the housing market should remain relatively stable. Still, there are some worrying spots such as overextended apartment loans and the lack of affordable housing that may cause issues when the recession hits.

“Economists generally expect [the United States] will experience a downturn . . . over the course of 2020 or early 2021,” says Sam Chandan, a trained economist, an associate dean of New York University’s Schack Institute of Real Estate, and a host of the Real Estate Hour on SiriusXM Radio. Chandan presented his “2020 Economic Forecast” at a ULI New York event in November.

But Chandan expects a recession, when it comes, to be relatively brief. “Any recession in modern economic history has been relatively short-lived compared to the period of growth to follow,” he said.

Given the length of the current economic expansion, Chandan is among those who are already focused on where opportunities to invest in real estate might appear after it is over. Data and in-depth analysis will help investors make the best decisions. And collaboration and cooperation will help lawmakers and local officials create the best policies to encourage growth.

Chandan himself is not predicting a recession in the near term. “No economist wants to go on record as saying that the downturn will be in 2020,” he says. “If it isn’t . . . then they will be remembered for that.”

Read More