John Burns: Homeownership will fall to 62% by 2015, then rise to 67% by 2025

Based on quantitative and qualitative research on the future of homeownership, real-estate experts at John Burns Real Estate Consulting predict that the national homeownership rate is likely to fall 8 percentage points, from 70 percent in 2005 to 62.1 percent in 2015. Then, by 2025, the rate will rebound to 67.1 percent.

The biggest factors leading to the decline in homeownership over the next four years are foreclosures and cyclical trends, including the fledgling economy, poor consumer confidence, and tightening mortgage credit.

The aging population is one of the bright spots in the near term, according to Wayne Yamano, VP and director of research at John Burns Real Estate Consulting. Positive demographics of an aging population, whose propensity to own increases as they age until they reach their 70s, will push homeownership upward, according to Yamano.

The key drivers of the homeownership rebound from 2016 to 2025 are:

1. Foreclosed homeowners returning to homeownership
2. Improved economy and normal lending conditions
3. Aging population

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