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A top Wall Street economist lowered the recession risk for the new year. Still, we’re not out of the woods yet. Though down from his earlier prediction, Michael Gapen’s forecast remains double what it would be on any given year due to economic bumps and geopolitical factors.
A top Wall Street economist is lowering his recession forecast.
But Barclays’ Michael Gapen warns it’s too early to give the U.S. economy the all-clear.
“We do need to get over some of these hurdles that are a problem for business-sector spending of which is both U.S.-China trade concerns as well as things like Brexit and other geopolitical risks,” the firm’s head of U.S. economic research said Friday on CNBC’s “Trading Nation.”
Gapen believes the odds of a contraction are now 20% over the next 12 months — down from his October forecast of 25% to 30%.
