Which Regions Are Homebuyers Migrating To?

No surprise here: Affordability and job growth are two top factors in attracting potential homebuyers. But where they’re moving is a little more curious. After enduring almost two decades of population loss, the Midwest gained residents for the first year since before 2000. And the South performed strong as well. Texas gained 2 million people in domestic migration and created 3.7 million jobs, living up to the phrase, "Everything is bigger in Texas."

The South and Midwest regions have accounted for an increasing fraction of existing home sales since 2012 while the shares of the North and West regions have declined, according to the October 2019 existing home sales estimates of the National Association of REALTORS®. The South region’s share of existing home sales increased from 36% in 2000 to 43% (as of October 2019), while the Northeast region’s share from 18% to 13% during the same period. The West region’s home sales share has slightly fallen from 23% to 21% while the Midwest region’s share has remained the same at 24%. However, since 2011, the Midwest region has been gaining market share, from 21% to 24%. The share of the West region rose to as high as 27% in 2011 but started declining in 2012, to just 21% in 2019.

States with Affordable Prices are Attracting Movers

The increasing share of homes sales in the South region is reflective of the large net domestic migration to the South region. From 2000-2018, net domestic migration1 in the South region totaled 7.3 million, and in the West region, 1.2 million people. Meanwhile, the Northeast lost nearly 5 million people and the Midwest lost 3.4 million from domestic migration.

Properties in the South and Midwest are relatively affordable and are attracting people from other states. Chart 1 below divides states into those with positive/negative migration and if median home values are above or below $250,000 based in 2018 data.

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