Could 2023 Be the Slowest Year of Home Sales Since the Great Recession?

Redfin economists predict that 2023 is set to become the slowest year for home sales since the Great Recession. The real estate market has been affected by persistently high mortgage rates and a severe shortage of inventory, leaving potential buyers and sellers wary. Redfin's projections indicate that the year will close with approximately 4.1 million existing home sales nationwide, the lowest level since the 2008 housing bubble burst.

High mortgage rates, which recently reached an unprecedented 8%, and elevated home prices have hindered affordability, leading many— particularly younger buyers—to reconsider their home purchase plans.

What Redfin economists say: “Buyers have been in a bind all year,” said Chen Zhao, Redfin’s economic research lead. “High mortgage rates and still-high prices are making it harder than ever to afford a home, shutting many young people out of homeownership and causing homeowners to reevaluate whether 2023 is the right time to move. Mortgage rates are staying high longer than anticipated, keeping away everyone except those who need to move and pushing our sales projection for the year down to a 15-year low.

Read more