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Fannie Mae has revised its forecast for the U.S. housing market: it now expects the U.S. housing market to produce fewer sales than it did in 2013.

Despite the bad news, surveys report that builders are optimistic, mostly because of the belief that low mortgage rates and job growth will lead to strong sales and higher prices over the coming months. But the Motley Fool’s Matthew Frankel argues that with tight credit standards, higher prices, and rising mortgage rates, Fannie Mae’s prediction for poor sales sounds like a more realistic scenario.

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