As the world slowly recovers from the pandemic, the real estate market is being hit hard. Mortgage rates have soared from the average 30-year fixed rate, jumping from 3.1% to 5.3% this year. Housing economists call this change a “turned-over” housing cycle. The housing market, which expanded starting in 2011, is now on a steady decline. But even as the market for houses recedes, housing prices aren’t necessarily going to follow. Home sellers tend to try to hold onto those higher prices for as long as they can before having to lower their prices.
As the housing cycle “turns over” it’s only logical to ask if the housing market is headed for another historical anomaly (i.e. falling house prices) or the historical norm (i.e. rising house prices)?
To find out, Fortune reached out to Moody’s Analytics to get access to its latest proprietary housing analysis. Researchers at the financial intelligence firm calculated how house prices are likely to shift in 414 regional housing markets between the fourth quarter of 2022 and the fourth quarter of 2024.
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