Housing inventory could increase on a year-over-year basis during the winter months, but will still remain at historically low levels, says Bill McBride in the CalculatedRisk Newsletter.
Local housing markets reported low inventory for the month of October, and markets in Jacksonville, Miami, and San Diego even reached record lows. Seasonal declines will affect new listings and closed sales, both of which were down YoY for the month of September.
Here is a summary of active listings for the housing markets that have reported in October. For these markets, inventory was down 5.9% in October MoM from September, and down 26.5% YoY.
Of these markets, inventories in Jacksonville, Miami and San Diego are at record lows. Sacramento and Washington, D.C. are the only markets with inventory up YoY in October (Austin is essentially unchanged YoY).
Inventory almost always declines seasonally in October, so the MoM decline is not a surprise. Last month, these markets were down 24.5% YoY, so the YoY decline in October is larger than in September. This is not indicating a slowing market.