Notes on November Housing

In November 2018, the nation's housing stock increased at the fastest pace in 3 years, 5 percent, while sales dropped 8 percent, according to a new monthly report.

Home prices appreciated less than 4 percent year-over-year for the third month in a row to a median of $298,800. In the hot Western markets of Dallas, Denver, Portland, Ore., San Francisco, and Seattle, market conditions are shifting in buyers' favor. Redfin chief economist Daryl Fairweather states, “The tide has turned,” adding, “Sellers are now competing for buyers, but they haven’t all realized it yet. Sellers who have adjusted their price expectations downward are still finding plenty of willing buyers. Sellers holding out for high prices are contributing to declining home sales and growing inventories. We see few signs that buyers are likely to reward their patience.”

As home sales continue to decline, the number of homes on the market is on the rise, shifting the balance of supply and demand back toward buyers’ favor. The number of homes for sale in November was up 4.9 percent from a year earlier. This was the highest level of inventory growth since June 2015, and the eighth straight month that the year-over-year figure increased.

However, the national figure masks a wide variation among individual metro areas, with inventory skyrocketing in places like San Jose (+123.2 percent), Seattle (+96.5 percent) and Oakland (+60.3 percent) but still falling fast in other areas such as Philadelphia (-24.0 percent), and New Orleans (-19.1 percent). Nationwide, the number of homes newly listed in November rose 0.3 percent year over year.

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