Research Director Says Builders 'Started on a Strong Foot' in January 2018

Rick Palacios Jr., director of research at John Burns Real Estate Consulting, says that new home sales actually increased in January 2018, based on their survey data.

Recently released Census data on new home sales for January had a +/- 19 percent month-over-month margin of error and +/-16 percent year-over-year, which, Palacios says, has not been properly reported. John Burns Real Estate Consulting's director of research adds that "In other words, they don’t even know whether sales rose or fell last month." Palacios cites JBREC's own survey data of more than 300 home builders, which found that new home sales grew 20 percent month-over-month and 14 percent year-over-year in January 2018.

For statistical accuracy, we survey the same builders monthly who as a group account for roughly 17 percent of all new home sales. We’ve been doing this survey for almost a decade and know as a matter of fact it is one of the best housing signals available. Public home builders just reported a strong 4Q-17, with many noting even better results in January. We spend days combing through all the public home builder earnings calls each quarter, gleaning industry insight and local market intelligence in the process.

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