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The predicted “silver tidal wave” may hit the future housing market, but the NAHB says there is no need to panic. As Baby Boomers move out or pass away, the resulting influx of houses on the market may have less than the monumental impact predicted by some coverage of the phenomenon. Although it is hard to predict long-term trends, the NAHB reminds us that with 80 million Millennials and a growing population, the market probably won’t be flooded with so much inventory that we plummet into another housing crisis.
A recent Wall Street Journal story that was picked up by Fox News ran with a sensational – and misleading – headline: “Baby boomers may put ‘tidal wave’ of 21 million homes on market – but who will buy them?”
The story contends that as baby boomers pass away or move into different housing situations over the next two decades, by 2037 roughly 21 million homes will be vacated by seniors. The article alleges that with so many homes on the market, it could be like the housing bust of the mid-2000s because there will be a glut of homes for sale and values will fall.
While it is difficult to accurately predict two years into the future – much less 20 years – here are the facts:
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