Where Will House Prices Go In 2023?

The Case-Shiller National Home Price Index was down 0.3% (SA) in October and is down 2.4% from its June 2022 peak, and with more interest rate hikes anticipated in the year to come, Bill McBride forecasts an even more substantial slowdown in home price growth throughout 2023 in his CalculatedRisk Newsletter. The seasonally adjusted Case-Shiller National Index has declined for four consecutive months, and after peaking in early 2022, median home prices are expected to post negative year-over-year growth in the coming months, with Case-Shiller soon to follow.

As demand wavers in an accelerating market correction across the U.S., price forecasts from housing experts run the full gamut, from single-digit yearly growth to double-digit percentage declines, but one thing remains clear: the housing market will slow in 2023.

The first question I’m always asked is what “Will happen with house prices?”. No one has a crystal ball, but it does appear house prices will decline in 2023.

The Composite 10 index was down 0.5% in October (SA) and down 3.8% from the recent peak in June 2022. The Composite 20 index was down 0.5% (SA) in October and down 3.8% from the recent peak in June 2022. The National index was down 0.3% (SA) in October and is down 2.4% from the peak in June 2022.

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