Will Gen Zers Beat Out Millennials in Homeownership?

Move over, Millennials. A plurality of experts expect Gen Z, the generation that started the Tide Pod Challenge and catapulted TikTok to fame, to outperform the previous generation in total homeownership once Gen Z comes of age, according to Zillow. Still, a fair amount of panelists surveyed are less optimistic, saying that the home prices will outpace incomes, pushing homeownership out of reach for the youngest generation. Only time will tell.

In 2020, the oldest millennials will begin turning 40, capping a turbulent decade that presented any number of home buying difficulties for them at the same time as they aged into their prime home buying years and severely denting the homeownership rate among 35-to-44 year-olds. By 2035, when the younger Gen Z begins reaching the same age, experts said they largely expect conditions to be more favorable and for the homeownership rate among 35- to-44-year-olds to be higher than it is today.

The homeownership rate for 35- to 44-year-olds has fallen from 66% to 60% over the past decade, even as the overall homeownership rate has rebounded to 64.8% after bottoming out at 62.9% in 2016. Looking ahead 15 years, a plurality of more than 100 economists, analysts and real estate experts surveyed as part of the most recent Zillow Home Price Expectations Survey, sponsored by Zillow and administered by Pulsenomics, said they expected a higher homeownership rate among that age group.

Almost 4 in 10 experts with an opinion (38%) said they expected the homeownership rate among 35- to 44-year-olds to be somewhat higher in 2035, compared to 31% who said they expect it will be somewhat lower and 20% who said it will be about the same. Only a small share of experts said they expect a dramatic swing in either direction – 4% said the homeownership rate among this age group will be much lower 15 years from now, and 7% said it will be much higher.

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