Will Inventory Fall to All-Time Lows Again in 2023?

Housing inventory fell 4% last week from the week before, and while that decline can be partially attributed to seasonality, a slight uptick in purchase applications at the end of the year is also a driving force in surging buyer demand and waning supply. From Dec. 30, 2022 to Jan. 7, 2023, weekly housing inventory fell from 490,809 to 471,349, while total active listings are on the cusp of falling below 1 million, according to Housing Wire.

Though the U.S. housing market traditionally has between 2 million and 2.5 million homes for sale, on average, total inventory is currently at a low 1.14 million for-sale homes, leaving spring buyers with slim pickings despite falling prices.

As noted above, the last few weeks have seen a noticeable 4% decline in inventory. Most of that decline can be attributed to the yearly seasonal decrease. If purchase application data started to improve toward the end of the year, and it looks out 30-90 days, then some of the inventory clearing can be attributed to better demand, not just the seasonal decline in inventory.

• Weekly inventory change: (Dec. 30, 2022-Jan. 6, 2023): Fell from 490,809 to 471,349
• Same week last year: (Dec. 31, 2021-Jan. 7, 2022): Fell from 293,477 to 292,021

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