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In a new longform piece, Fortune Magazine senior editor at large Geoff Colvin unwinds the nation's seemingly bullish economic conditions that belie signs that the end of economic expansion is near.
The main warning signs of an impending bear market include the escalating trade wars between the United States and Canada, the European Union, Mexico, and China; a stagnating stock market, a possible unemployment rate trough, a bigger-than projected deficit, and high corporate debt. He explains that we are currently in the phase of the cycle where the market overheats, backed up by data from the Congressional Budget Office, and "a familiar sign that we’re in the waning stage of the growing season." Writes Colvin for Fortune, the current growth run is the second-longest recorded, over 164 years by the National Bureau of Economic Research, and explains that this run's old age, like any individual, is experiencing "comorbidities," where the breakdown of one part leads to an overall breakdown.
What’s less widely understood is that there has actually been a global competition for this supplementary workforce. Other developed nations with declining birthrates likewise need new workers to help offset their armies of retirees—and America has been winning this battle, luring low-wage workers to fill jobs that native-born Americans aren’t rushing to do but also scientists and entrepreneurs. Witness the Silicon Valley billboards, bought by the Canadian government, imploring techies with visa troubles to “Pivot to Canada.” That’s why President Trump’s immigrant-hostile policy isn’t just a political stance, it’s also an economic one.
