Are We Approaching the Next Recession?

Experts believe the next recession will hit in 2020, according to a recent Zillow survey.

Forty-eight percent of respondents with an opinion believed that the next recession would begin sometime in 2020. About a quarter predicted 2019, while 14 percent predicted 2021. The quarterly survey from Zillow Research questioned more than 100 U.S. real estate experts and economists.

The suggested reasons for the next recession have changed since Zillow’s August 2017 panel, when a geopolitical crisis was the most common trigger listed. This year, monetary policy received the highest weighted score (137), behind trade policy (71), a stock market correction (69), and higher-than-expected inflation (68). With a score of 17, a housing market crisis did not register high on the list of potential recession triggers.

Experts also weighed in on mortgage rates, with the majority (51 percent) unconcerned about today’s underwriting standards. Twenty-five percent of respondents said mortgage underwriting was somewhat tight and twenty-one believe it is somewhat loose.

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