Home Price Gains Expected in Unseasonably Warm Winter Housing Market
Though the winter months are usually a slow period for growth in the housing market, Zillow’s Home Value Index (ZHVI) for November shows considerable price gains at a time when inventory is steadily declining. The average US home reached $316,368 in November, up 19.3% from the previous year, though experts anticipate that monthly growth will slow or plateau in the coming months.
Compared to pre-pandemic rates in November 2019, the current market is reporting 37.8% fewer homes for sale after a 6.1% monthly decline in November 2021. Less housing availability creates a prolonged sellers market into the start of the new year and leaves buyers with shorter windows of opportunity and much tighter competition.
The Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) rose 1.2% from October, to $316,368, up 19.3% from November 2020 level. The annual growth represents an all-time high in data dating back more than 20 years, and the monthly pace is higher than at any point recorded prior to the pandemic — though still down notably from the all-time high of 2% set in July. Monthly growth has been falling since mid-summer but barely slowed at all in November from October’s 1.3% pace. If current trends continue, monthly growth could plateau near the current pace, translating to an annualized growth rate of 14% – slower than today, but still historically very strong.
This slowdown of the slowdown extended to local markets, too. Monthly home value growth did slow from October to November in 20 of the nation’s 50 largest metro markets – down from 41 that experienced slowdowns in October from September. Put another way, while a majority of the nation’s biggest markets experienced a month-month slowdown in October, a majority experienced an acceleration in November. The slowest monthly growth in November was in Milwaukee (0.3%), followed by Pittsburgh (0.3%), Detroit (0.5%), Buffalo (0.5%) and Sacramento (0.5%). The fastest was in Nashville (2.6%), Orlando (2.4%) and Atlanta (2.3%).