What's Behind the Shift in Seasonal House Price Patterns?

Home prices usually follow a clear seasonal pattern, with U.S. home prices typically increasing in the spring and summer, then decreasing in the fall and winter in response to seasonal changes in demand and supply. But, looking at data from the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index (not seasonally adjusted), which tracks changes in the overall value of the U.S. residential market over time, the Calculated Risk blog notes that the usual seasonal pattern has recently been distorted. Calculated Risk looked at Case-Shiller data from 1987 through December 2024, and noted several key points, including:

2) The surge in distressed sales during the housing bust distorted the seasonal pattern.  This was because distressed sales (at lower price points) happened at a steady rate all year, while regular sales followed the normal seasonal pattern.  This made for larger swings in the seasonal factor during the housing bust.

3) The seasonal swings have increased recently without a surge in distressed sales. Read more