Case-Shiller National Index Shows Steady Gains in December

The latest seasonally adjusted December Case-Shiller National Index was a reported 52% above the bubble peak in 2006, but in real terms (inflation adjusted), the National Index is 12% above the bubble peak, according to the CalculatedRisk Newsletter. House prices in 2022 are above previous peaks just before the Great Recession, and the Case-Shiller National Index is also up to a record high on a price-to-rent basis.

Across the board, housing prices are elevated as the “Affordability Price Index” continues to rise, and future gains will be determined by the trajectory of rising mortgage rates and dwindling supply.

In nominal terms, the Case-Shiller National index (SA) and the Case-Shiller Composite 20 index (SA) are both at new all-time highs (above the bubble peak). The National Index is 52% above the bubble peak, and the Composite 20 index is 39% above the bubble peak.

In real terms, house prices are now above the previous peak levels. There is an upward slope to real house prices, and it has been over 15 years since the previous peak, but real prices appear historically high (Of course interest rates are very low).

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