Forecast: Remodeling Spending Decelerating Through Q1 2020

Experts say that remodeling spending is set to slow down in the U.S. through the first quarter of 2020, projecting annual growth will decelerate from seven percent this quarter to 2.6 percent in Q1 2020.

The data comes from the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University's Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity (LIRA). According to JCHS associate project director Abbe Will, “Home improvement and repair spending has been in an extended period of above trend growth for several years, due to weak home building, aging homes, and other factors,” adding, “However, growth in remodeling is expected to fall below the market’s historical average of 5 percent for the first time since 2013.”

LIRA provides a short-term outlook of national home improvement and repair spending to owner-occupied homes. The indicator, measured as an annual rate-of-change of its components, is designed to project the annual rate of change in spending for the current quarter and subsequent four quarters, and is intended to help identify future turning points in the business cycle of the home improvement and repair industry. Originally developed in 2007, the LIRA was re-benchmarked in April 2016 to a broader market measure based on the biennial American Housing Survey.

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