Only one-in-five U.S. homes sold for more than their list price in 2019—the lowest share since 2016. This may feel a bit like whiplash as the number of homes sold above list price hit its highest-ever number recorded by Zillow just the year before. But sellers should not lose hope yet: Experts expect buyers to come out in full-force this spring, and although the average of 2019 broke the pattern of four years of straight growth for sales over list price, the end of the year saw a steady improvement which should continue in 2020.
Roughly one-in-five (19.9%) U.S. homes sold for more than their list price in 2019, the lowest share in years — a reflection of cooling market dynamics and subsequent shifts in pricing and offer strategies in response. But as those market dynamics begin changing direction again, so too will the balance of power in the ongoing price/offer game between buyers and sellers.
The share of homes sold for more than their list price last year was the lowest since 2016, and down from 21.5% in 2018, according to an analysis of transactions in which we could match a listing’s initial list price with its final sale price. The year-over-year decline breaks a streak of four consecutive years in which a greater share of homes sold above list than the year before. The dip coincides with a year in which annual home value growth fell steadily from recent highs recorded in 2017 and 2018, to levels more consistent with both annual wage growth and historic annual norms.
Despite recent year-over-year drops in home value, San Francisco (48.6% of homes sold above list) and San Jose (38.8%) top the list of metros with the greatest share of homes sold above list among the top 35 — a sign of just how competitive the Bay Area remains even after cooling significantly in 2019. Boston (34.7%), Minneapolis-St. Paul (34.3%) and Seattle (31.2%) round out the top five.
