Seasonality May Not Be Entirely to Blame for a Rental Slowdown at the End of 2022

Housing inflation is still rising across the U.S., but according to the CalculatedRisk Newsletter, the rental market is posting declines that go beyond seasonality alone. The Apartment List National Rent Report revealed a 1 percent drop in November, the third straight month-over-month decline and the largest single month dip in the five-year history of the index.

Realtor.com’s October Rental Report also showed the lowest year-over-year growth rate in 18 months for median rents across the top 50 metros. The timing of that decline is consistent with seasonal cooldowns recorded on an annual basis, but its magnitude is far greater than the data from years past.

In October 2022, the U.S. rental market experienced single-digit growth for the third month in a row after nine months of slowing from January’s peak 17.4% growth. The median rent growth across the top 50 metros slowed to 4.7% year-over-year for 0-2 bedroom properties. It is the lowest growth rate in 18 months but is still nearly 1.5 times faster than the growth rate seen just before the pandemic hit in March 2020.

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